This Friday July 3 brings a more hopeful picture for Iraq and the wider region than we have seen in weeks. Gold has rebounded strongly to around $4,176 per ounce, up about 1.3% today and roughly 4% for the week. The US-Iran talks in Doha concluded with positive progress on the Strait of Hormuz, the ceasefire is holding after last weekend’s dangerous escalation, and oil has settled back to around $70 a barrel — roughly its level before the war began in February. For Iraq, a nation at the center of the region’s oil trade and a longtime holder of gold, this combination of developments is significant.
Begin with the Strait of Hormuz, which matters more to Iraq than almost any economic factor. This week’s Doha talks, held through Qatari and Pakistani mediators, focused specifically on restoring reliable maritime passage through the strait. Qatar described the outcome as “positive progress,” and commercial shipping continues to recover — dozens of vessels are now transiting the strait daily, though traffic remains below pre-war levels and the situation is still described as patchy and fragile. For Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer with more than 90% of government revenue tied to oil exports, every improvement in Hormuz shipping directly supports the flow of Iraqi oil to Asian markets and eases the costs that strained the economy during the war.
The oil price picture is a double-edged development for Iraq. Crude has fallen back to around $70 a barrel — its pre-war level — as the market anticipates normalized flows through Hormuz. For Iraqi government revenue, lower oil prices per barrel are a challenge. But the return to stable, predictable pricing and normalized shipping is, over time, more valuable to Iraq’s economic planning than the volatile, disrupted high prices of the war period. It is worth noting one caution: some analysts believe oil traders may be too optimistic about how quickly Hormuz fully normalizes, which could mean oil prices firm up again if the recovery proves slower than expected.
For Iraqi gold buyers, this week’s rebound is encouraging news. Gold had fallen to an eight-month low near $4,000 as fears of aggressive US Federal Reserve rate hikes dominated the market. This week, a weak US jobs report — just 57,000 jobs added in June versus 110,000 expected — sharply reduced those rate-hike fears, and gold rallied about 4%, its best week in months. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh added that inflation expectations have come down. With the Fed now expected to be patient rather than aggressive, the biggest headwind on gold has eased.
The long-term foundation for gold remains firmly in place, which matters for Iraqi families who hold gold as a store of wealth across generations. Gold at $4,176 is up 25.2% over the past year. The World Gold Council’s recent survey found that roughly 90% of central banks expect global gold reserves to rise over the coming year, and global bar-and-coin demand in the first quarter of 2026 was the second-highest on record. These structural forces provide a durable floor beneath the price.
For a nation that has weathered wars, sanctions, and upheaval across generations, this week offers genuine encouragement: a holding ceasefire, progress on Hormuz, steadying oil, and a recovering gold price. The situation remains fragile and the coming weeks will test whether the progress holds. One note for today: US markets are closed for the Independence Day holiday, so trading is thinner and prices may move more sharply. For those who hold gold, this week’s rebound is a reminder of gold’s enduring resilience.
Today’s prices: 24K — $134.30/gram | 22K — $123.10/gram | 21K — $117.50/gram
All prices USD. Indicative only. Please confirm in store.
