Gold opens this Sunday May 10 at $4,715 per ounce, and for Iraqi buyers of gold — whether investing, saving for a wedding, or building family wealth — the week ahead is one that demands attention. Three events will move the gold price before Friday, and the geopolitical situation next door is directly connected to every one of them.
Start with what happened Friday. The US April Nonfarm Payrolls report showed 115,000 jobs added — nearly twice the 62,000 expected. Markets initially sold gold on the strong number, then bought it back. Gold closed up 0.63% for the day. The reason gold recovered despite a strong jobs report is the same reason it will remain supported through this week: the Federal Reserve is trapped. With core inflation at 3.5% and oil at $101 per barrel (Brent) because of the Hormuz closure, the Fed under its new Chair Kevin Warsh cannot cut rates without risking a further inflation surge. But it also cannot hike rates without risking an economic contraction. That paralysis is gold’s floor.
The week’s biggest event is Tuesday May 12: US Consumer Price Index for April. April was the month where oil averaged between $96 and $106 per barrel, driven directly by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the waterway that runs along Iraq’s neighbouring coastline. Those energy costs are now embedded in April’s American consumer prices. If CPI comes in high, above 4%, gold faces short-term selling pressure and may test $4,600. If it comes in lower than feared, gold pushes toward $4,850. Wednesday’s PPI follows with producer price data that signals where inflation is heading in May and June.
On the Iran peace deal — which matters enormously to Iraq given its shared border and deep economic ties with Iran — the situation this weekend saw the Qatari Prime Minister hold urgent talks with US Vice President Vance and Secretary Rubio in Miami. Iran is reviewing the US Memorandum of Understanding proposal and is expected to respond through Pakistani intermediaries this week. Simultaneously, Thursday’s missile attack on three US destroyers in Hormuz by Iranian forces, and Trump’s explicit threat of “one big glow coming out of Iran” if the deal fails, means the ceasefire is under maximum stress. For Iraq, a resolution that reopens Hormuz benefits the country’s own oil exports, reduces regional inflation, and stabilises the dinar.
Iraq’s own gold market has shown strong and consistent demand through the entire war period. In times of regional instability, Iraqi families have historically turned to physical gold as the most reliable store of value. That instinct has been correct: gold is 41.86% higher than one year ago, and Goldman Sachs targets $5,400 by year-end with J.P. Morgan projecting $6,000 to $6,300. The current price of $4,715 is a significant discount from January’s all-time high of $5,595. For buyers in Iraq this week, the message is consistent: the week ahead is volatile, the events are real, but the direction of gold over the months ahead has not changed.
Today’s prices: 24K — $151.62/gram | 22K — $138.98/gram | 21K — $132.66/gram All prices USD. Indicative only. Please confirm in store.
