For Iraq, this has been the most consequential week of 2026. Gold is trading near $4,739 per ounce this Friday morning May 8, recovering strongly from below $4,700 earlier this week, as the United States and Iran move closer to a peace agreement that would end the war that began on February 28 and reopen the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway that affects Iraqi oil exports, regional energy prices, and the cost of living for millions of Iraqi families directly.
The breakthrough came Tuesday May 5 when President Trump paused “Project Freedom” — the US Navy operation in the Strait of Hormuz — citing great progress in peace negotiations. By Wednesday, Axios reported the two sides were close to a one-page Memorandum of Understanding: Iran halts nuclear enrichment, the US lifts sanctions and unfreezes billions in Iranian assets, and both sides reopen the Strait. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan served as key mediators. Oil prices fell below $100 per barrel for the first time in weeks. Iraqi crude exports, which had been constrained by the regional crisis, stand to benefit significantly if a full reopening materialises.
For Iraqi gold buyers, the combination of a recovering gold price and a potential regional peace has created the most interesting market environment of the year. Gold at $4,739 is still 15.3% below the January all-time high of $5,595, which means those who missed the peak are being offered a meaningful second entry point. The structural case — record global Q1 2026 gold demand of 1,230.9 tonnes, continued central bank buying, mine supply growing at only 1–2% annually — has not changed. What is changing is the removal of the oil-inflation headwind that had been artificially suppressing prices since February.
Today’s April Nonfarm Payrolls from the United States could add further fuel to gold’s recovery. If the data shows the US labour market weakening — which the ISM manufacturing report’s Employment index at a 2026 low of 46.4 already suggested — then stagflation fears rise, the Federal Reserve under new Chair Kevin Warsh faces a dilemma, rate cut hopes revive, and gold has a clear path to $4,800 and higher before the end of May.
Next week brings two more key data points: US CPI for April on May 12 and PPI on May 13. These will be the first inflation readings that fully capture the oil surge from the Hormuz crisis. Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its $5,400 year-end gold target. J.P. Morgan targets $6,000–$6,300. For Iraqi families and investors holding gold through this difficult regional period, those targets represent substantial appreciation from today’s prices.
The war that started next door may be ending. The gold that protected value through it all is heading higher.
Today’s prices: 24K — $152.36/gram | 22K — $139.66/gram | 21K — $132.82/gram All prices USD. Indicative only. Please confirm in store.
