This Monday June 22 finds the region in a more uncertain place than a week ago. The US-Iran peace deal that sparked so much hope has hit an early snag — the signing ceremony scheduled for Switzerland was cancelled on Friday, and the talks have stalled. Meanwhile gold has steadied at approximately $4,186 per ounce after a difficult month, bouncing 1.1% today. For Iraq, sitting at the heart of the region and deeply exposed to both oil markets and the gold price, this is a pivotal week with mixed but important signals.
Start with the peace deal, which matters more to Iraq than to almost any other nation. The interim agreement reached just over a week ago committed to reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war that has disrupted Iraqi oil exports for nearly four months. But the cancellation of the Swiss signing on Friday is a genuine setback. Analysts now expect a lasting resolution will take more time to materialise. For Iraq, this means the full normalisation of Gulf shipping — and the relief from elevated insurance costs and disrupted export logistics — may be delayed. The interim ceasefire appears to be holding, but the path to a comprehensive, durable peace has become longer and less certain.
There is, however, a notable development in oil that carries mixed implications for Iraq. Even with the peace deal stalling, oil prices have fallen sharply — Brent dropped toward $78 per barrel, a three-month low, and WTI fell to a 3.5-month low. For Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer with more than 90% of government revenue tied to oil, lower oil prices reduce revenue per barrel, which pressures the national budget. But the falling oil price also reflects easing supply fears, which over time supports regional economic stability and reduces the inflationary pressure that has gripped global markets. It is a complex picture: lower revenue per barrel, but a calmer, more predictable market.
For Iraqi gold buyers and investors, the key development is the shift in what drives the gold price. The Iran conflict, which moved gold for months, is no longer the dominant force — the Federal Reserve is. Last Wednesday’s hawkish Fed meeting, where nine of eighteen officials projected a 2026 rate hike, pushed the US dollar to a 13-month high and weighed on gold. Goldman Sachs cut its year-end target to $4,900 from $5,400. This is why gold fell last week even as the peace deal stalled — the Fed has displaced Hormuz as the main driver.
But the long-term picture for Iraqi gold holders remains supported by the deepest force in the market: central bank demand. Official buyers turned net purchasers again in April, adding 19 tonnes, and the World Gold Council’s survey found roughly 45% of central banks plan to grow their reserves over the coming year. Even after its cut, Goldman Sachs still sees gold at $4,900 by year-end — a 17% gain from today. Gold remains 23% higher than it was a year ago, even after the worst month in a while.
For a nation that has held gold through wars, sanctions, and upheaval across generations, this week’s lesson is one of patience. The peace deal has stalled but not collapsed. Oil has fallen, bringing both budget pressure and market calm. Gold has dipped but found support, underpinned by relentless central bank buying. This week’s US Q1 GDP and PCE inflation data will shape the near-term path. The road to a durable peace — and to gold’s recovery — has become longer, but the underlying direction has not changed.
Today’s prices: 24K — $134.61/gram | 22K — $123.39/gram | 21K — $117.78/gram
All prices USD. Indicative only. Please confirm in store.
